Cyprus stands to lose almost 2% of its tourism because of climate change

A European Commission report has shown that Cyprus stands to lose almost 2% of its tourism because of climate change in the future.

The report, entitled “Regional impact of climate change on European tourism demand”, was drafted by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process.

“The tourism industry, a significant contributor to European GDP, may face considerable stress due to climate change,” it said. “This study examines the potential impact of climate change on tourism demand in European regions in the 2100-time horizon. Using data from 269 European regions over a 20-year monthly timespan, we estimate the effect of current climatic conditions (rated with a Tourism Climatic Index, TCI), on tourism demand, considering various regional typologies. Our findings reveal that climate conditions significantly affect tourism demand, with coastal regions being the most impacted areas.”
The researches simulated how the European regional demand will be altered under future climate change using the climate variables data from 10 regional climate models (RCMs). The impacts are estimated for the global warming targets set out in the Paris Agreement targets (1.5°C and 2°C) as well as two higher warming levels (3°C and 4°C). They are compared with the 2019 historical base year, built using the EURO-CORDEX climate variables dataset.

In a 1.5°C warming climate, the majority (80%) of the European regions are projected to be affected by climate change only in a rather small proportion, the flow of tourists visiting those regions fluctuating between -1% and +1%.

The news is not so great for Cyprus, however, which is expected to suffer the highest decline (-1.86%).

The maximum increase could happen in a Finnish coastal region (+3.25%). The results are rather similar for the 2°C warming scenario.

Under the 3°C and 4°C warming scenarios, significant shifts in the demand patterns are projected for Europe, with a clear north-south pattern arising.

The Central and Northern Europe regions are projected to become more attractive for tourisms activities year-round, to the detriment of the Southern and Mediterranean areas.

In a 4°C global warming scenario, 80% of the regions are projected to increase their tourism demand with respect to 2019. Growth rates higher than 3% in the number of bed nights are foreseen for a total of 106 regions.

On the other hand, 52 European regions across Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus, Spain, France, Italy, Portugal, and Romania are projected to lose tourist flows with respect to the present.

“Coastal and island regions are known to be highly vulnerable to impacts of climate change and this is also confirmed by our analysis, where the coastal regions are projected to face the highest impacts in tourism demand for the higher warming scenarios,” the report says. “Thus, when looking at variations larger than +/- 5% in the number of bed nights with respect to the base year, 63% of the affected European regions are coastal areas, destinations that are also simulated to experience the maximum disruptions in tourism demand (i.e., +16% in West Wales and -9% in Greek Ionian Islands) under an extreme global warming scenario. Additionally, the largest losses (<-5%) are projected across Cyprus, Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal regions, while the highest gains (>+5%) are distributed across Germany, Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Netherlands, Sweden and United Kingdom.”

The overall effect on the EU’s tourism demand is positive in each of the warming scenarios considered, the demand being projected to increase by 1.58% under the 4°C scenario.

From this country perspective, the noted north-south pattern is also apparent. Southern countries face tourism demand reductions in all global warming scenarios, with considerable drops in Cyprus, Greece, Spain, and Portugal.

Despite these losses, the relatively large positive effects of climate change projected in Northern and Central European countries fully compensate for the drops in number of bed nights.

“It is also interesting to note that the changes in tourism demand are in general non-linear with respect to the change in warming levels,” the researchers said. For example, moving from the 2°C warming scenario to the 4°C warming scenario (i.e., doubling the warming levels) would mean much more than doubling the relative demand reduction in Spain (from –0.4% in the 2°C scenario to -3.1% under the 4°C scenario). Similar non-linear effects would occur in Portugal and Greece.

In the case of positive changes, that non-linearity also occurs in many countries. For example, moving from the 2°C warming scenario to the 4°C warming scenario (i.e., doubling the warming levels) C. D. 28 would mean much more than doubling the relative demand reduction in UK (from +2.1% in the 2°C scenario to +7.5% under the 4°C scenario). Projected evolution of the tourism demand at country level compared to the present (2019), in percentage terms, for the different global warming scenario.