The y-o-y growth rate of the CCLEI remained positive in July, CypERC says

Τhe year-over-year growth rate of the Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) remained positive in July, the Economics Research Centre (CypERC) of the University of Cyprus says in a press release.

The Index, it is added, recorded a year-over-year increase of 0.8% in July 2024, following the year-over-year increases of 0.9% and 0.8% recorded in June and May 2024, respectively (according to recent and revised data).

It is noted that almost all components of the CCLEI, except the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in Cyprus, contributed to this positive growth. Specifically, at the domestic level, the year-over-year increases in property sales contracts, temperature adjusted electricity production volume, tourist arrivals, credit card transactions, and retail sales volume positively influenced the CCLEI in July. At the international level, the improvement in the Confidence Index in the euro area, coupled with the decline in the international Brent Crude oil price in July 2024 compared to July 2023, also positively impacted the CCLEI. “However, it should be noted that the small year-over-year decline in the ESI in Cyprus restrained the further increase in the CCLEI in July”, the press release adds.

In conclusion, the year-over-year growth rate of the CCLEI remained positive in July 2024, driven by the growth of nearly all economic indicators that comprise the CCLEI, it further says.

The CLEI Index is designed to provide early warning signals for the turning points of business cycles i.e., early evidence of the turns in economic activity. This Index comprises of several leading economic activity variables whose changes tend to lead the changes in the overall economic activity and which are evaluated on a regular basis.

It is further axplained that the leading variables have been selected from a large pool of domestic and international leading indicators and are: the Brent Crude oil price (€), the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in Cyprus and the euro area, the total property sales contracts, the tourist arrivals in Cyprus, the value of Cypriot credit card transactions, the retail trade sales turnover volume index, and the temperature-adjusted volume index of electricity production.

The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index1 (CCLEI) is constructed and estimated by the Economics Research Centre (CypERC) of the University of Cyprus.

(Source: CNA)