How the thinking behind Donald Trump’s tariff policies has roots that go back decades

Global markets and entire economies are awaiting the full implications of US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policies even as a 90-day reprieve has been given, albeit with China excluded from the pause.

With the President turning 79 this year and having had decades of business experience, it is little surprise that Trump’s thinking behind the decisions to both announce and pause the tariffs has roots that go back many years.

Indeed, several reports in the international media have pointed to Trump’s long history of both his apparent bias against global trade and fondness of tariffs.

They also note that the difference now is that this thinking is being tested on a global stage with the proposed tariffs leaving markets in turmoil for a time and prompting even Trump supporters within the US itself to warn of a recession.

Experts suggest that Trump’s thinking appears to be based on his long-held belief that other countries have been taking advantage of the US.

As far back as the late 1980s, and long before he became President, Trump was quoted as saying, “I believe very strongly in tariffs,” he said. “All of the many nations that abuse the United States should pay a major tax — like a 15% or 20% tax on any product they sell in the United States.”

The experts say the seeds were planted decades ago, as early as when many of Trump's real estate clients, including through apartment sales at Trump Tower, were wealthy non-Americans. While they point out that Trump did not blame his clients for what he considered was taking advantage of the US, he did blame the country’s policy for allowing it to happen.

In his 1987 book ‘The Art of the Deal,’ Trump himself wrote that Middle Eastern buyers came when oil prices rose. South American and Mexican buyers were next, when their economies were strong, and the dollar was weak. Wall Street buyers surged with the stock market, and the Japanese when their economy improved.

“They rarely smile, and they are so serious that they don’t make doing business fun,” he penned. “Fortunately, they have a lot of money to spend, and they seem to like real estate.”

“What’s unfortunate is that for decades now they have become wealthier in large measure by screwing the United States with a self-serving trade policy that our political leaders have never been able to fully understand or counteract,” he continued in his book.

It was also in 1987 that Trump most prominently began articulating his current beliefs, as he began considered run for the presidency. He spent $100,000 on an ad he termed an “open letter” that was published in The Washington Post, the New York Times, and the Boston Globe.

In the letter, Trump focused his ire on Japan, a nation that was rising economically and becoming a stronger competitor. He had witnessed Japanese interests buying American icons such as Rockefeller Center in New York. He bought the Plaza Hotel, just up the street across from Central Park, from a Japanese corporation.

“Japan and other nations have been taking advantage of the United States,” he wrote in the ad, complaining that the American military was taking care of military defences while Japan spent money to build “a strong and vibrant economy with unprecedented surpluses.”

“‘Tax these wealthy nations, not America,” he wrote. “End our huge deficits, reduce our taxes, and let America’s economy grow unencumbered by the cost of defending those who can easily afford to pay us for the defense of their freedom.”

Moving on to 2025, when Trump announced a 90-day pause on many of the tariffs while also simultaneously raising levies on Chinese imports to 125%, he told House Republicans at a formal dinner, “We have to put America first. Put. America. First.”

It is this sentiment that is also contributing to Trump’s approach. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt recently said that the new policy amounts to “monumental change” and exactly what Trump is after. “The president is focused on restructuring the global economy — on restructuring the domestic economy as well. The politicians in this city have not seen a president who is actually willing to take the steps to implement such change, really, in modern history,” she said.

The role tariffs play in this approach was also clearly foreshadowed before Trump’s election.

“The most beautiful word in the dictionary to me is tariff,” he said during a rally in November 2024. “I think it’s the most beautiful word. It’s going to make our country rich.”

His first term as US President, from January 20, 2017, to January 20, 2021, was also marked by tariffs, particularly on China. The difference now is that many of the officials that may have somewhat restrained Trump in this regard, are no longer in active roles and many have been replaced by people who are largely aligned with Trump's worldview.

White House officials have also suggested that circumstances have also changed, including that, as they underline, the USA now has a stronger economy that can withstand the turmoil required for his plans, even as many economists dispute this.

“His entire professional life — if you go back to interviews with President Trump in the 1970s — he’s been speaking passionately about this issue,” Stephen Miller, the deputy chief of staff, said during a recent panel discussion of White House officials. “And he warned in the 1980s about all of our critical industries moving to, at that time, Japan. And he warned for years about the loss of our automotive industry,” Miller said.

Experts believe that, then and now, Trump also considers tariffs not so much a tool of Congress — but of a strong executive. Shortly after taking out the newspaper ad nearly 40 years ago, Trump railed against the tax system as he considered his presidential bid.

“I’m tired of nice people already in Washington,” he said. “I want someone who is tough and knows how to negotiate. If not, our country faces disaster.”

Trump eventually dropped his presidential run, but he continued railing against the global trade system.

As previously mentioned, then, as now, he did not blame the foreign countries for taking advantage of favorable policies. He blamed the United States leaders for allowing it to happen.

“Why are we so stupid? We cater to these people and the end result is they don’t respect us,” he said at an aviation conference in 1989 in which he said the nation’s leaders were “the biggest suckers in the world” and called for a 20 percent tax on imports.

Trump also spoke all those years ago, as he does now, about how it is not only adversaries the US needs to be concerned with but allies too, suggesting that some use favourable diplomatic relationships to gain an advantage. And, indeed, even long-term allies were not spared from the proposed tariffs.

Today, tariffs, in Trump’s view, also appear to also be a cure for a number of the nation’s ills and the tool to the USA reaching new heights.

While most economists see taxes paid on imports as capable of addressing unfair trade practices, many are skeptical of the almost ‘miraculous’ properties Trump suggests they possess.

Trump’s assortment of justifications for the tariffs he is imposing include balancing trade and spurring US manufacturing, something he recently said had already seen new auto industry plants being created within the country.

Trump also said he believes the actions, and specifically those involving the US’s neighbours Canada and Mexico, will help halt illegal immigration and human trafficking.

The US President has, in addition, suggested the tariffs will help stop the flow of fentanyl. Trump has cited the illicit flow of fentanyl into the USA as a reason for his tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.

Another reason cited by Trump is that the tariffs will help both balance the USA’s federal budget and will result in ‘fairness.’

“I’ve decided for purposes of fairness that I will charge a reciprocal tariff,” Trump said recently as he signed a proclamation laying out his plan for reciprocal tariffs. “It’s fair to all. No other country can complain.”

The proposed tariffs are also being used as a tool of retaliation against other countries. In an address to Congress, Trump explained his push for reciprocal tariffs on all countries, as a tit for tat action.

“Whatever they tariff us, other countries, we will tariff them. That’s reciprocal back and forth,” Trump said. “Whatever they tax us, we will tax them.”

Another axis of the approach, according to the Trump, involves a bolster to the USA’s national security, reflected in tariffs on imported copper, lumber and timber.

He has also given the reason making childcare more affordable, with expenses potentially being covered by the money being brought in by the funds generated by the tariffs.

The President has also underlined his opinion that the tariffs will play a significant role in making the country wealthy, while also protecting its essence.

In his speech to Congress, Trump said, “Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again.” and, on another recent occasion, again while speaking to Congress, saying, “Tariffs are not just about protecting American jobs. They’re about protecting the soul of our country.”